An “Over-Analysis” of NBA Statistics, by Joe Maher

My editors are making me call this article an ‘Over- Analysis,’ but I’m not sure why. They said something about these stats being so astounding it’s insane. Or maybe it was the other way around.

With the NBA season coming oh so soon, albeit not soon enough, it’s starting to creep into everyone’s mind. What’re the Ringer The predictions specifically for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, the champion, and Best Front Office Management of the Year (An award that I definitely did not make up) this season? Don’t worry because you’re about to find out. We here at Ringer The have new, state of the art technology that allows us to look at statistics that most analysts and even some editors here can’t, and or won’t, use, let alone comprehend. Now, I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d trust these analytics over any “scholarly statistical research” out there. So read up and bet big because statistics show that this season is going to be a doozy.

Most Valuable Player Finalists

Allen Crabbe

Crabbe’s points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game, shooting percentage, and minutes per game have gone up in every season he’s played in. If we stratify the biggest jump in each category we can find out that next season he will average 33.4 points, 2.4 assists, 6.1 rebounds while shooting .529 from the field with an incredible 57 minutes per game. Now that’s a stat line I can get behind. He won’t stop after this season though; he’s going to keep getting better exponentially. My data suggest that we only have 5 years until Crabbe owns both the NBACA and his own team (The Annapolis Crabbes) in which he is the only player on the roster. The National Basketball Allen Crabbe Association will fight a long and bloody battle, but eventually then crumble under the immense pressure placed upon it by the countermovement lead by Adam Silver’s first born. But, for now he’s just an MVP finalist.

Bojan Bogdanovic

The first rule to looking at NBA statistics is that you have to know is that trends. A couple examples of some such trends include, “LeBron makes the finals every year” or “Embiid is going to miss half the season.” In the case of the MVP award, the last four years have gone to players ages 25, 26, 27, and 28. This means that, of course the next winner must be of age 29 and, you guessed it, Bogdanovic fits the criteria perfectly. As if any of you need more data proving Bogdanovic’s value, let’s look at last year’s PACE leaders, a stat that clearly means how many points a player puts up against the Pacers. Last year, Bogdanovic had a 107.10, which puts him first out of any players who averaged more than 25 minutes per game. But, this stat gets even crazier when you look at his projection for this upcoming season. His PACE is only supposed to drop by 1 point and Bogdanovic is now on the Pacers. I’m not sure how he’s going to pull it off, but that’s MVP worthy.

Jarnell Stokes

While both of the prior two finalists are going to have great seasons, this player will win the MVP. Stokes is probably one of the most underrated players in, or in his case, out of the NBA. Last season Stokes shot an astounding 100% on the season. This is peak efficiency and something Russell Westbrook didn’t even achieve in rec ball. His season was cut short by a nagging, obviously idiotic, coaching staff who didn’t appreciate real talent. Now, let’s dig a little deeper. If we take Westbrook’s points per made shot, (3.038) and multiply that by Stokes’s efficiency (1.00) and then multiply that by total shots taken by Westbrook (1941) we can accurately gauge how many points Stokes will score this upcoming season. This is a whopping 6017 points, smashing Wilt’s previous record by 1988 points while averaging just over 74 points per game. Now that’s an MVP. He would only need to keep this efficiency up for two season to put him as the 238^th all-time leading scorer for a career list, ahead of Danny Ainge and Sydney Moncrief, and after just seven seasons, Stokes would be the NBA’s all-time leading scorer (a feat that took Kareem 20 years). Also, two seasons ago, Stokes won MVP of the NBA D-League, but we all know those stats don’t matter as much as that shooting percentage.

                                                                                                        

Rookie of the Year

Caleb Swanigan

How many players averaged a double-double (as we all know, the only statistic that matters) during the summer league (the only league that matters)? The answer is two- Matt Costello and Caleb Swanigan. So, obviously every other player is automatically out of contention. Let’s compare the stat lines between these competitors. Costello averaged 11.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while Swanigan averaged 16.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Swanigan also played in double the games and had around 5 minutes more per game. The lines are close, but I believe Swanigan barely edges Costello because he’s projected to be on an NBA team while Costello is not.

My editors are making me put another side note in saying that Ringer The’s official Rookie of the Year pick is Ben Simmons, even though they wouldn’t look at either of Costello’s or Swanigan’s summer league stats. Simmons did not play in the summer league, a clear sign telling me he is not ready for Rookie of the Year candidacy.

Defensive Player of the Year

Brice Johnson

 Draymond, of course, has to be a candidate with 2.03 steals per game, but with per 48 minute steals only coming out to 2.99. Similarly, Gobert led the league in blocks with 2.64 per game, but only goes to 3.64 per 48 minutes. Unsurprisingly, neither of these two overrated, overpaid, inefficient, borderline defensive players will win Defensive player of the year. Brice Johnson, the league’s most exciting young player, after Jarnell Stokes, is going to take home this hardware. In 48 minutes per game, last season Johnson would have averaged 5.33 blocks per game and 10.67 steals (second and first overall respectively). This would put him in front of 21 NBA teams in term of blocks and 25 in term of steals. Besides theses classic statistics, Johnson is the most disciplined player of all time. He averaged 0.0 fouls per game last season and there are no signs of him slowing up. Johnson is just going to keep shutting opponents down.

The NBA Champion

Before revealing our Ringer The picks for the champion, let’s run through some ground rules all you readers should know.

Rule 1: Also known as the Dwight Howard Controversy, says any team that has ever had Howard will never win a championship until he retires. This means that the Magic, Lakers, Rockets, Hawks, Hornets and another new team every season until Howard retires are out of contention.

 Rule 2:  Also known as the James Jones Jinx, says that James Jones will make the NBA finals. Seeing as he has retired, this rule has been nullified.

Rule 3: Also known as the Golden State Double Jeopardy Dispute, says that the Warriors cannot win or lose two championships in a row, so they too are out of contention.

 Rule 4: Also known as the No New Friends Law, says that no NBA team without a championship can ever win one. The one exception is if you have LeBron James. This means that the Nets, Grizzlies, Hornets, Raptors, Jazz, Suns, Clippers, Nuggets, Pacers, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Thunder are all out of contention as well. Many people don’t agree with this rule, but if you look at all of history (after 2011) no new team has won a championship without LeBron James.

Rule 5: Also known as the Fifth Place, 3-Point Field Goal Made as a Team in Preseason Confirmation, says that the team in fifth place for 3-point field goals made will win the NBA championship. Last season, the Warriors were fifth and ended up winning then two season ago the Cavaliers were fifth and they too ended up winning, then three years ago, the warriors were tied for fifth and they also ended up winning. It's not a coincidence. These numbers don’t lie.

Rule 6: Also known as the Your Team Isn’t Really a Super Team Truth, says that the Warriors are amazing and no one can compete with them. Thank god for Rule 3.

Okay, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way let’s look at which teams are left in contention. The Bulls, Celtics, Spurs, Knicks, Heat, Sixers, Mavericks, Kings, Pistons, Trail Blazers, Bucks, and Wizards all have a basically equal percentage chance to win this year. Unfortunately, the team in fifth place for 3-point field goals made in the preseason is currently the Nuggets, a team out of contention, so that doesn’t help.

 If we look at the last two champions, we can see that it was the Cavaliers and then the Warriors. If you noticed, the word Cavaliers has nine letters and Warriors has eight. This means that the next winner must have seven letters in their name. So, this leaves us with the Celtics, Pistons, and Wizards.

My editors are also making me put a note here saying that this was not a statistic and no one should not bet on anything based on amount of letters in a team names.

Since the Pistons are currently leading the preseason in fewest turnovers per game, of course after the Guangzhou Long-Lions, they will win the next NBA championship. 

Best Front Office Management of the Year

The New York Knicks

The Knicks have the most expensive beer out of any team in the NBA. Starting at $10.50 per small beer, the New York Knicks just edge out the Phoenix Suns by 25 cents per beer. With prices this high, it’s a mystery how a 31-51 team still gets fans to come out.